Tuesday, March 9, 2010

The Impact of Free Agency on Fantasy Football

Free agency has a huge impact on fantasy football every season. Some players are cut or released. Some are re-signed. And some sign big contracts with new teams. So far the free agent market has been very active this off season. Some key moves that will impact fantasy are the signings of Thomas Jones to the Chiefs, and Chester Taylor to the bears.

Matt Forte was a top 3 back his rookie season but struggled mightily last year. Yes, he was plagued with injuries, but by the end of the year he was relatively healthy and still struggled to maintain a high yards per carry. So what do the bears do? Go out and get Chester Taylor, who was backing up Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Why is this important? Well the Bears recently signed Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator. Traditionally, running backs in Martz system perform well. (Marshall Faulk, Frank Gore) He usually prefers backs with good hands, who can catch the ball as well as they can run with it. Taylor has great hands. And since Taylor is getting paid starter money I wouldn't be surprised if he got the majority of the touches in Chicago. Going into the season Forte was a RB2, he's now a borderline RB3 , along with Taylor. If your gonna draft a Bears RB, pass on Forte and take Taylor a few rounds later.

Bad news for Jamal Charles fans......The chiefs signed Thomas Jones. After the Chiefs cut Larry Johnson, Jamal Charles became the center piece of there offense and put up huge numbers. In the last 6 weeks of the season he was a top 5 fantasy running back. In most rankings this year (before the signing of Jones) hes a top 10 back. Though Jones is old, and showed signs of slowing down last year, Jones always seems to perform well everywhere he goes. Hes a true runningback, capable of carrying the ball 30 times a game. I would expect a 60/40 carry split between the two favoring Charles. And Charles will be in the game on all 3rd downs. I would still expect Charles to get 20 touches a game, either rushing or receiving. The guy is a game breaker, they're going to design plays to get him the ball. In PPR Charles is a borderline RB1. In standard formats hes dropped to a RB2. TJ on the other hand should be a solid RB3, with upside if Charles gets injured.

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