Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Drafting Tips: The QB Position

There once was a time in fantasy football when top Quarterbacks were always drafted in round 1. But those days have been long gone. Yes, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees still get drafted in the first round in some drafts, but more people have realized that you can get a quality QB in between rounds 5-7. Of course, Quarterbacks usually score the most points in fantasy football, but the variance in points between the top quarterbacks, and the quarterbacks from the 10-15 range is so small. For example, outside of the top 3 fantasy quarterbacks last year, (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning) the number 4 QB only averaged 3 more points a game than the number 15 QB. Which means there were 12 Quarterbacks who basically put up the same amount of points per game. So in my opinion, pass on a quarterback in the first 4 rounds, stock up of WRs and RBs and grab a guy within that 4-15 range that you think has lots of upside in a later round.

Last year in my draft, both Manning and Brees were taken in round 1. Brady was taken in round 2, and then no other QBs were drafted until this 5-7 round range. I grabbed Kurt Warner in round 5, which at the time I thought was a steal since he was a top 3 QB the year before. I also took a flier on Matt Schaubb in round 10 or 11, when the talent starts to really diminish. After the draft I realized I lacked some depth at the WR position, so I decided to trade Warner because I realized that the QB position isn't really that important. It ended up working out well because Matt Schaubb ended up as the 4th best QB overall last year.

QBs to target in later rounds next year:

Jay Cutler - Chicago Bears - Jay throws lots of interceptions but he has an enormous amount of talent and the Bears recently hired Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator.

David Gerrard - Jacksonville Jaguars - This guy always seems to finish as a top 15 QB, and he'll be around in round 7.

Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions - The number one overall pick last year in the NFL rookie draft had an injury plagued season. Look for him to turn it around this year and build a good connection with Calvin Johnson, the stud Lions receiver.

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